r/news • u/ThePensiveE • 1d ago
Iran-backed Houthis take full control of Red Sea coastline, tightening grip on crucial shipping lane
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/middle-east/houthis-control-bab-el-mandeb-yemen-red-sea-saudi-iran-war-oil-rcna597186770
u/mlorusso4 1d ago
Not only the coastline, they’re even island hopping now. How are the saudis this inept that they’re losing one of the most difficult types of military operations?
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u/WhiteLycan2020 1d ago
Saudis hire mercenaries. They don’t have any skin in the game besides a paycheck.
They ain’t giving up their lives for a quick buck
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u/FlautenceWizard 1d ago edited 17h ago
People never learn. Machiaveill wrote almost 500 years ago that a mercenary army is the worst type of army you can possibly have. Even conscripts are better.
It doesn't matter how skilled they are, they're fighting for money and have no real loyalty. They will jump ship if things get too tough or if they get a better offer.
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u/N_Meister 21h ago edited 21h ago
The segment Machiavelli wrote on mercenary armies is this:
I say, therefore, that the arms with which a prince defends his state are either his own, or they are mercenaries, auxiliaries, or mixed. Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies; they have neither the fear of God nor fidelity to men, and destruction is deferred only so long as the attack is; for in peace one is robbed by them, and in war by the enemy.
The fact is, they have no other attraction or reason for keeping the field than a trifle of stipend, which is not sufficient to make them willing to die for you. They are ready enough to be your soldiers whilst you do not make war, but if war comes they take themselves off or run from the foe; which I should have little trouble to prove, for the ruin of Italy has been caused by nothing else than by resting all her hopes for many years on mercenaries, and although they formerly made some display and appeared valiant amongst themselves, yet when the foreigners came they showed what they were.
(From The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli)
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u/blackflamerose 23h ago
Which is why I have seriously wondered why no one has offered to buy out the mercs. No one can match Saudi money or whatever else they may have offered?
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u/ZgBlues 22h ago edited 21h ago
No. As Machiavelli pointed out centuries ago, the problem with mercs is not just that they can switch sides at any point.
It’s also that they are paid wages as long as they fight, so it’s in their best interest to drag out every war for as long as possible.
Simply put, they are paid to fight, not to win fights.
(And another drawback is that in those rare cases when they actually win, they usually loot and destroy everything in sight, leaving behind scorched barren areas that the party hiring them has no use for.)
In this case, Saudis are practically a thinly disguised slave-owning feudal monarchy. Nobody they hire gives a fuck about anything other than the next paycheck because they have no concept of a “career.”
It’s not like you can do an amazing job against the Houthis and get promoted to general or whatever. The generals will always be some royal dude’s barely literate cousins.
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u/sapphon 23h ago edited 12h ago
OK, here's a rifle, it's for your son. I expect to see him at killing and dying training tomorrow morning!
If you find you've begun looking for ways out of this situation - even otherwise unideal ones - gartz! You now understand mercenaries. They are for when you don't particularly need a job done well, but desperately need that it not be done by you or anyone you like.
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u/ArugulaElectronic478 21h ago
You say that but Wagner took some of the hardest defended cities early in the Russo-Ukraine war.
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u/Woodpeckershurtmyear 1d ago
Plus Saudi's have been genociding the Yemeni local population similar to Israel. It's small wonder many of them turned when they could
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u/ResidentSuperfly 10h ago
Don't forget the US also supported the Saudi's in their blockade against the Houthis, which hold the majority of the population of Yemen, starving thousands. The US has their hands bloody. Also don't forget under Obama they bombed a wedding in Yemen too.
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u/Tearakan 1d ago
Saudi military is designed for internal conflict. Like preventing coups or preventing uprisings not external force projection
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u/CptJacksp 13h ago
Ah, the Imperium of Man approach.
Keep the army just good enough to be okay, but NOT good enough that we risk another Horus Heresy
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u/OrderFlowsTrader 1d ago
Or protect women from rapists.
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u/yetanothrmate 1d ago
because their defences relies HEAVELY on the US Support .. trump spread that support Thin to a point theres no imidiate resources to help push back ... they will likely be pushed back but till then the damage on Oil prices is done
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u/KinkyPaddling 1d ago
And some other factors include:
The Saudi Arabian military is under strength for its paper size due to a high turnover rate of soldiers and non-appointed officers. Few turn military service into a profession, and this includes technical specialists.
The military lacks a proper professional officer corps of NCOs. The Saudis usually give officer positions to members of the Royal Family or their friends, and this means that a lack of discipline and professionalism permeates the officer corps.
The Saudi military is, at its heart, an expensive police force. As you said, they rely heavily on American aid and protection against foreign threats. But by stacking entire military leadership structure with friends and family members, regardless of competency level, they have military into a structure which has the priority of protecting the position of the Royal Family first, and protecting the sovereignty of their nation second.
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u/OldAccountIsGlitched 1d ago
Pretty much. MBS is a little more competent than his predecessors except when it comes to the military. He was probably behind the original invasion in 2015 and that was a fiasco. I'm sure part of it is that he wants to avoid giving too much power to the military to avoid the risk of a coup. But that just makes them unqualified to fight a war.
Although their blockades and strikes on civilian infrastructure has reached genocide levels of famine. They've got a lot of expensive toys and are happy to bomb shit from positions where the Houthis can't hit back.
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u/ThatOneComrade 23h ago
What purposefully gimping your army to keep them from being strong enough to perform a coup does to a nation state.
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u/CosineDanger 1d ago
They're more effective than you'd think for a nepotism-based Air Force. Most of the princes rise to the occasion and manage to take off and land in the American jets they nepo'd so hard to get into. They have a lot of helicopter accidents, but who doesn't?
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u/mawhrinskeleton 1d ago
A lot of that support has also been bombed into smithereens by Iranian drones and missiles
The supply bases in Bahrain and Kuwait are pretty much done for
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u/Nick_the_bunny 1d ago
this and ukraine just show how useful drones will be in warfare, who needs billion/multi million dollar missiles when <5k dollar drones are easier and almost as effective
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u/sllop 1d ago
Drones have made navies irrelevant. The radars that Iran destroyed in the Middle East will almost certainly never be rebuilt.
We are in a new era of warfare, and the DoD hasn’t seemed to realize it yet. Like at all.
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u/urbanhawk1 1d ago
I think there is a place for navies but it will be a different role. You will still need ships for policing actions and control over local waterways in times of peace. Additionally, if you do want to deliver strikes against an enemy who has an ocean between you and them, or at least a great deal of distance, you will need a platform to deliver drones/missiles to them since most drones don't have the range. They probably won't be super carrier sized though.
Submarines still haven't been made irrelevant by drones. They still remain very difficult to take out, can attack deep targets with less warning, and can attack from angles AA systems might not be set up to intercept. I expect them to still have a strong role going forwards.
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u/Throwaway5432154322 22h ago
Check out “On The Origins Of Victory: How Disruptive Military Innovation Determines the Fates of Great Powers” by Krepinevich. General/ former SECDEF Mattis recommended it in an essay he wrote, it is a great read, dealing with how military-technological innovations have altered or, more interestingly, NOT altered the strategic and/or geopolitical landscape in modern history. It is critical reading, IMO, for understanding where we’re at right now in terms of military technology.
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u/johnis12 1d ago
Doubt they'll change anytime soon too. MIC needs to get their billions of dollars for their overproced shit. Might be wrong but think I heard they even cancelled contracts for Drones.
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u/tpolakov1 22h ago
Boeing and RTX have been in that business back when drones were just the big UAVs. They would have no issues making products and minting out contracts that would give them as good, if not better margins and turnaround.
It's more that contracts and procurement broadly follow policy and ideological line of the executive, and the current one has been set in stone a long time before the current situation.
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u/Throwaway5432154322 22h ago
>drones have made navies irrelevant
They said the same thing about the torpedo in the 1800s. Obviously, that turned out not to be true.
War isn’t linear. Unmanned strike capabilities and counter-drone capabilities are playing a constant game of leapfrog. Right now it’s better for the offensive side of things. That isn’t going to be the case for long, and DoD knows it. I know this because I work in the defense industry and see the kind of technologies being created and now procured at scale by our military.
Concluding that “navies are no longer relevant” because of “drones” is not accurate in the slightest.
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u/OrderFlowsTrader 1d ago
iranians are brilliant for sure as they have a strategy and execute it very well
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u/Covert-Pawperation 23h ago
Yeah, Trump underestimated them- and also, their terrain… they have that going for them. If he puts boots on the ground , it will be devastating loss of lives for our military.
He is not concerned bc no billionaires have kids in the military.2
u/OrderFlowsTrader 23h ago
Bingo!! Their kids not in military AND they become even more richer off these wars!! Just look at the price manipulation going on in US markets. The Biden family does not even fit in the amateur column of grifters compared to trumps.
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u/donaldfranklinhornii 20h ago
Do we have any proof, other than Hunter Biden, that the Biden administration was full of grifters?
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u/OrderFlowsTrader 1d ago
trump is a fool to get involved in the middle east
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u/oh_what_a_surprise 1d ago
You could also stop right before the word "to" in that sentence and it would still be true.
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u/TheBigCore 22h ago
And the biggest fools of all were the ones who voted for Trump in the first place.
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u/ThePensiveE 1d ago
The Saudis largely rely on what are essentially mercenary armies. It's more complicated than that but suffice to say their ground forces are limited.
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u/OrderFlowsTrader 1d ago
Those fat overpaid so called soldiers cannot run a mile in twenty minutes!!
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u/HigherandHigherDown 22h ago
Do you want competent armed forces, or ones that are definitely never going to launch a coup? The despot's dilemma.
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u/Clemendive 23h ago
The Saudi are incompetent but also when the yemeni civil war began most of the army officers sided with the Houthis. They're not a ragtag group of militias they have a professional military leadership.
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u/Mend1cant 22h ago
Yes. There’s been some good writings on this since the Iran-Iraq war. Basically middle eastern countries tend to be so heavily stratified in social power that they cannot function with modern warfighting without being handheld by stronger militaries. It’s why Iraq folded like laundry twice, why none of them are bothering to stand up to Iran, why Israel won their war in a week.
The big example is Americans struggling to train local forces, where in one instance when training them to use tanks they gave every crew member the manual to learn how to operate and maintain the tank. Their officers then walked by, took the manuals, and reprimanded the men. They weren’t allowed to know things that they weren’t directly told by superiors.
Zero room to make decisions at a low level, which makes them incredibly incapable of handling insurgent forces, where guerrilla tactics force improvised decisions to happen at the low level.
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u/pudding7 20h ago
Why Arabs Lose Wars... https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/olj/meria/meria00_den01.html
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u/Hussar223 23h ago
saudis dont want to put their own boots on the ground, and airpower alone cant hold ground.
the mercenaries they employ to fight in yemen will sure as hell not die for some island.
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u/Seven19td 1d ago
This is all such a shit show.
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u/damnthistrafficjam 1d ago
Gotta hand it to Trump. He seems inordinately capable of making any given situation FUBAR.
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u/Armadylio 23h ago
I mean you gotta have some real snatching-defeat-from-jaw-of-victory skills to bankrupt 4 casinos
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u/HoightyToighty 23h ago
As it happens, that wasn't just incompetence; it was fraud, also.
Notice that Trump's personal wealth just keeps rising throughout all of these debacles? That's the point.
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u/peon2 20h ago
It was a lot of stuff. Trump incompetence and illegal activity certainly played a factor but really the biggest thing was just Atlantic City in general.
Between Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun opening, and airline deregulation cutting the cost of flights so it became affordable for an average person to go to Vegas, Atlantic city saw a huge drop off in tourism. In a very short period AC went from the only affordable gambling destination for the east coast to having competition both that was equal driving distance from NY and also Vegas flights being affordable.
Trump wasn't the only casino owner to go bankrupt and close up shop. It was mostly a matter of circumstances. AC to this day still doesn't have as many casinos as they did back then because they went from a monopoly to having competition.
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u/afsdjkll 23h ago
He could have literally done nothing and we would be infinitely better off than we are at this point.
I wonder how we're doing with all those human rights violations he was pretending to care about a few months ago.
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u/GumboMustBeDestroyed 23h ago
Trump did his part to destabilize the middle east in time for the 25th anniversary of 9/11
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u/and_off_she_fucked 1d ago
Satellite images showed that they blew up the Saudi East-West Pipeline yesterday. Goodbye to another 5M barrels a day.
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u/kstargate-425 7h ago
Again. Theyve hit it a few times shutting it down and its still down now. We are talking about a 1,200km pipeline that is impossible to protect and that carries 5% of the worlds daily oil supply
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u/HolyMoleyGuacamoly 1d ago
good thing they’ve been cancelling every green energy project possible! 4D chess mr. president
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u/ShleepMasta 17h ago
4D Chess, Republicans. They've been sabotaging any efforts at Green energy long before Trump was even thinking about politics. Trump is the culmination of that.
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u/kstargate-425 7h ago
Yeah paying out over $4 BILLION to cancel a dozen green energy projects and offshore wind farms so they will not build them is wild. Then they are giving more subsidies to build gas-turbine energy production facilities going from the cheapest energy production to one of the most expensive energy production methods while adding BILLIONS more to the oil companies already $30 BILLION annual subsidies.
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u/AtOurGates 4h ago
It is (sad) funny that this would make such a great excuse for Trump if he hadn’t been so anti-electrification his entire career.
“We don’t need oil! We’ll get our energy from the sun and all drive Trump-brand battery powered EVs! We’ve got the best EVs! Everybody’s saying so!”
Instead, he’s done everything he can to keep Americans from affordable transportation.
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u/WhaleNationals 1d ago
Thanks, Hegseth! So glad that firing the generals who warned about ALL OF THIS has worked out so well for us.
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u/GetBAK1 23h ago
Aren't the Houthis just the government of Yemen at this point?
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u/jenny_905 19h ago
Pretty much. They control much of the Yemeni military too.
I think it's safe to say they're in charge.
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u/Wizardof1000Kings 19h ago
About the only major city not controlled by the Houthis is Aden. If that falls, the Houthis essentially will control all of Yemen.
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u/corgiperson 21h ago
They are. They govern 80% of the Yemeni people. To call them a rebel group or terrorists is really outing your political position in relation to Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
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u/Scout_Dee 1d ago
Get ready for another round of 'global supply chain disruptions' as an excuse for doubled shipping prices
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u/ThePensiveE 1d ago
To be fair if ships start blowing up in the Red Sea it won't just be an excuse.
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u/wasraelx 1d ago edited 1d ago
I mean, Trump told the captains of the ships to ‘just have some guts.’
As Jon Stewart said: I know you might not wanna steer the world’s slowest ships, with the world’s most flammable cargo, through the world’s most active war zone, but what if I told you… [chicken noises]
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u/OrderFlowsTrader 1d ago
And no more insurance
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u/toothless_budgie 3h ago
The US is covering US flagged vessels.
So, y'know, the taxpayers.
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u/WhiteLycan2020 1d ago
How is it an excuse? Insurance rates for these ships are probably through the roof because you never know when a drone or stray missile hits
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u/ProofByVerbosity 1d ago
If you can even get insurance. Id hazard a guess a lot of them dont have it anyway.
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u/newleafkratom 1d ago
…”Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam said on X on Thursday that “freedom of navigation and international trade through the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab remain safe and uninterrupted,” adding that “there is no need for international concern” about the strait….”
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u/Paraparo 1d ago
In fairness the houthis probably have more of a specific bone to pick with the Saudis, and probably aren't exactly in the mood to risk drawing international ire right now. The worst thing they can do is give too much excuse for a more competent player that the Saudis to get involved, especially if they think they're on the upswing.
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u/One-Emu-1103 1d ago
I don't think that this is a good thing for the West
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u/sockmeistergeneral 1d ago
Right wing governments will blame the economic fallout on immigration and the cycle will continue.
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u/Tigglebee 22h ago
Yeah don’t get your hopes up that MAGA will learn any actual lessons about provoking needless wars and isolating our allies.
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u/sockmeistergeneral 22h ago
Yeah that's my point.
They start a war, which cause a economic downturn, find a demographic to scapegoat, get into power by promising to punish said demographic, use the power to enrich themselves, become unpopular then finally they start a war to rouse nationalism and distract from their rampant corruption. Then the cycle repeats anew.
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u/rx_bandit90 1d ago
We were tired of all the "winning"
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u/shutyourgob 1d ago
We will pay every American adult $5,000 to stop bringing up that we're losing the war.
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u/OrangeRadiohead 1d ago
No shit. This is all due to Trump. He acts like a child. He's impulsive, doesn't consider the consequences of his actions and throws his toys out of his was when he doesn't get what he wants.
Trump has been a huge disturbance with global security and wellbeing.
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u/TomT060404 22h ago
..but Biden! Trump is claiming the $5000 checks (after his team wins) will be to pay back Americans for suffering through the Biden presidency.
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u/porgy_tirebiter 1d ago
Don’t worry. I have it on good authority that the war will be over right after the midterm election.
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u/TintedApostle 23h ago
Trump and Hegseth have failed in every way. A total disgrace.
Who will they bribe, blame or scapegoat here?
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u/HarryPotterCum 21h ago
You’re asking the wrong question and are looking at this from the wrong perspective. It’s all been an incredible success.
Ask who already bribed Trump to get into this mess, to run up the prices on shipping, oil, weapons manufacturing, freight insurance, etc…. Ask who is making money off all of this.
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u/Nearbyatom 1d ago
Come midterms or 2028 general elections somehow the democrats will get the blame for this.
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u/marioandl_ 22h ago
correct. the media has already started selling the lie that vance was against this disaster
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u/noodlearmdiscgolfer 19h ago
We need to be done with gasoline for cars. Yes we need oil for plastics and many other manufacturing processes but have enough domestic production for that. It’s too easy to bomb refining as Ukraine and Iran has shown or to choke supply lines or take out pipelines. Ramp up EVs and renewable power. It’s going to happen with $7 gas so let’s get on with it.
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u/Realanise1 23h ago
It's almost like this disaster could have been avoided if an orange thing hadn't started a war.
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u/Menkhal 22h ago
And it's a problem that would be immediately solved as soon as they left and came back to their country.
Stop messing around in the Middle East, get out, and there won't be a problem any longer. Just like there was no problem before the US and Israel decided to make one.
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u/ScarSignal7723 21h ago
but 9/11 never forget? you can only kill so many millions and displace hundreds of thousands of families in the middle east before 5 of them get together out of resentment and anger for what you did.
but then they are labeled as terrorists when you have mined their land for your own gain and agenda :)
israel and america have put this world through so much pain and hell
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u/Tribe303 1d ago
laughs nervously in Canadian
Russia can't get oil to market due to Iranian attacks. The Saudis can't get oil to market due to Iranian/Houthis attacks, Venezuela can't get oil to market because of Venezuela. China and the US ain't selling, leaving Canada the last major oil supplier, next down the list is... Brazil?
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u/Throwawayalt129 1d ago
They've also landed a direct strike on the Saudi East-West pipeline, causing damage in about 8 places. The EW pipeline was the only Saudi export route for oil that didn't pass through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning the Houthis have effectively eliminating the ability for the Saudis to move oil at all. This removes I believe about 5 million barrels of oil a day from the market. Get ready to see prices you didn't even imagine were possible.
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u/OLPopsAdelphia 1d ago
Look on the bright side: If this administration doesn’t get voted out, economic collapse is going to cause people to pull them out!
Happy Friday!
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u/GeekyTexan 18h ago
It seems like Saudi Arabia should have enough money to have their own military instead of expecting the US to do everything for them.
Most of the 9/11 hijackers were from Saudi Arabia, but they are asking us for help.
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u/No_Criticism_5861 22h ago
I know this isn't good for the people living in that area, nor is it good for gas prices, but seeing trump lose a war to the strait of hormuz does my heart a lot of good
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u/GabeTheWarlock 1d ago
Let's goooooo! Amazing to see them push back against American and Saudi imperialism and genocide from such an underdog starting point
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u/Evilkoikoi 1d ago
Is someone in the state department dictating to these news agencies how they should talk? It’s so weird to see the Iran-backed line inserted into every headline. You have very little space in the headline so why is it so important that you put that specific line in there? It’s so strange.
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u/Specific-Path3179 1d ago
Your free press hasn't said a peep about Mitch McConnell being dead for 3 months, what do you think.
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u/ProofByVerbosity 1d ago
Whats weird about it? They are backed by Iran and I have no doubt a bunch of people still dont know that.
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u/Evilkoikoi 23h ago
Why not US-backed Ukraine, Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi, Kuwait. Why not UAE-backed Sudan terrorists? Why not US-backed ISIS Syrian president?
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u/ObliqueTravel 1d ago
Hasn't shipping in the red sea already been down like 50% over the last 2-3 years?
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u/UnionGuyCanada 1d ago
Another US win. Destroyed bases, ships fleeing, carrier fleets exhausted, soldiers dead and billions wasted just to have Iran more powerful than ever.
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u/Oregon-Pilot 1d ago
Almost like Trump has no fucking clue what he’s doing because he’s fucking stupid. And we all get to pay the price. Well done Trump voters, well done!!
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u/DogblackMichigan 1d ago
Saudi Arabia can’t beat the Houthis even with the best American weapons. They abandon Abrams tanks to the slightest resistance.
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u/WorryNew3661 23h ago
Sure, why not at this point. Any other places someone wants to shut down while we're at it?
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u/RicRacer 23h ago
I'm so old I remember when the shipping lanes were wide open. Thanks Trump and Republicans.
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u/Deep__Deep 19h ago
I am so confused…?!?! Trump said it is open and that he is going to call it the Trump Straight.
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u/Antraxess 14h ago
GOP are destroying the world to aid putin and rob us blind
The child rape parties are just a bonus.
Will someone rid us of these turbulent pedophiles
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u/Idiodyssey87 1d ago
Maybe we'll get lucky and our best and brightest will figure out teleportation. It seems easier than maintaining a shipping lane these days.